![]() Politico reports that last year’s agreement at the COP27 climate summit to create a loss and damage fund is “at risk of coming apart”. Separately, S&P Global reports that Argentina has threatened to halt exports of crude oil following domestic shortages. S&P Global also carries Mehren’s warning. The Daily Telegraph, the Times, the Hill and the Daily Mail also cover the story.Įlsewhere, the Financial Times reports that Mario Mehren, chief executive of German oil company Wintershall Dea, has “warned of European ‘complacency” over energy security in the wake of the escalating war in Gaza. The organisation had been projecting them to decline next year, but disruptions to oil supplies could drastically change those forecasts.” CityAM reports that the current record for crude oil is $147 per barrel recorded in 2008. The New York Times adds: “The World Bank projects that global oil prices, which are currently hovering around $85 per barrel, will average $90 per barrel this quarter. The Guardian notes that oil prices have risen by about 6% since the conflict began, but says agricultural commodities, industrial metals and other commodities have “barely budged”. And a “large disruption” on the scale of the 1973 Arab oil embargo would cut global oil supply by 6m-8m barrels per day, driving up oil prices to $140-157 per barrel, the newswire reports. A “medium disruption” would push prices up to $109-121 per barrel, it adds. A “small disruption” similar to the 2011 Libyan civil war would cut daily oil output by 0.5m-2m barrels and drive oil prices up to $93-102 per barrel in the final quarter of 2023, it says. According to Reuters, the report outlines three risk scenarios based on regional conflicts since the 1970s. ![]() In its quarterly commodities markets outlook, the bank warned that prolonged conflict “could drive big rises in energy and food prices in a ‘dual shock’ for commodity markets still reeling from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine”, the newspaper says. The World Bank has warned that crude oil prices could rise above $150 per barrel if the conflict in the Middle East escalates, the Financial Times reports. The study authors revealed the reduced carbon budget in a Carbon Brief guest post last year (the new study includes small updates to their methods). If current national climate policies are fully implemented (admittedly, an optimistic scenario), this may be enough to hold warming below 2C.” The Times, Associated Press, Time, Daily Mail, Energy Mix and NPR also cover the study. Our update also revised the budget for 2C downwards relative to the IPCC’s 2021 estimate, but by a smaller amount – from 1,350 to 1,220 gigatonnes, or from 34 to 30 years of current emissions. In the Conversation, two of the study’s authors write: “It looks less likely that we will limit warming to 1.5C, but this does not mean that we should give up hope. The New York Times adds that global average temperatures have already risen by around 1.2C. The New Scientist notes that to limit global warming to 1.5C, the planet would need to reach net-zero emissions by 2034. The UN goal of halving emissions by 2030 and reaching net-zero by 2050 would give only a 40% chance of staying below 1.5C, the newspaper adds. Combined with the extra carbon and some other small adjustments, this brings the total remaining budget down to 250bn tonnes.” The Guardian calls the remaining carbon budget “tiny”, adding that it will be exhausted in six years given current levels of emissions. The researchers say this new understanding of the role of aerosols removes 100bn tonnes from the remaining 1.5C budget. But as the world strives to clean up dirty air in cities and to use less of the most heavily polluting fossil fuels, the number of aerosols in the atmosphere declines – meaning temperatures go up faster than previously thought. It continues: “The new research paper finds that these aerosols have in fact a far higher cooling impact than previously thought. The new study uses more recent data and re-examines the role of other factors such as aerosols on global temperatures, the outlet explains. ![]() The latest assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that only 500bn tonnes of carbon could be released from 2020 to give the planet a 50% chance of staying below 1.5C, according to BBC News. There is widespread media coverage of new research finding that the remaining “carbon budget” for limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures has shrunk further.
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